About Us
Models are powerful analytical tools that shape policy priorities, targets, and international negotiations on climate change. The Climate Futures Project is a joint initiative of the Sustainable Futures Collaborative and the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi to foster the informed and measured use of climate policy modelling studies by decision makers, scientists, journalists and concerned citizens. We apply a common framework to assess, compare, and interpret the assumptions and results of modelling studies.
TERI-SHELL
IEA
CEEW
TERI-SHELL
IEA
CEEW
An explanation of relative performance of models along 5 assessment parameters
In general, the robustness of any modelling exercise rests upon five parameters: transparency and validity of inputs, appropriateness of model choice, quality of scenario construction process, treatment of uncertainties, and validation of outputs. Under current practices and data limitations, not all modelling setups perform equally along all five parameters; they demonstrate different strengths and shortcomings.
Cross-Model Outputs
Annual CO2 emissions in end-year vs Average GDP growth rate from base year
* Notes: TERI-Shell and CEEW estimates are not adjusted for CCS and carbon sinks, which are included in their scenarios to enable net-zero emissions; Figures adjacent to the points represent primary energy demand in megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
Installed electricity capacity (GW) in end-year
* Notes: TERI-Shell and CEEW estimates are not adjusted for CCS and carbon sinks, which are included in their scenarios to enable net-zero emissions; Figures adjacent to the points represent primary energy demand in megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
A common reporting framework for...
Assessing Approaches
Are the model scenarios transparently described and justified for their stated purpose?
Comparing Results
How do the study results compare with those of other, similar studies?
Interpreting Implications
What are the implications for science and policymakers?
Model Factsheets
Coming soon
The Climate Futures Project plans to continue this work – and update this website – with the following activities:
- Analysing new climate policy modelling studies (as and when they are released) using the common reporting framework, and releasing new factsheets and updated cross-model analysis outputs;
- Analysing the implications of inter-model comparison and review for policy and science;
- Exploring the relevance of this work to other (developing) countries; and
- Organising workshops and events to engage with these results, and inform discussions on new climate policy modelling studies in India and abroad.
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