Unpacking ‘India Energy Outlook 2021’
Key Highlights
| Stated purpose of the study | Key merits | Scope for improvement |
|---|---|---|
|
To ‘map out possible
energy futures for India,
the levers and decisions
that bring them about,
and the interactions that
arise across a complex
energy system' |
Transparent data, model structures,
and thorough reflection on input
assumptions lend credibility to study
Interestingly, the study provides quantified estimates for investments in the energy sector upto 2040, for flexibility requirements towards renewable integration, and for avoided fossil fuel imports |
Alternative development pathways (urbanisation,
structural growth trends) are not explored within the study, possibly limiting emissions and energy demand estimates
Equity issues are also largely treated qualitatively Further reflection on the uncertainties within the model structure, drivers of outputs, and contextualization of the results with other comparable studies would have lent further credibility to the model |
Model Assessment
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Model Assessment
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| Transparency and credibility of inputs | Appropriateness of model choice to research objective | Assessment of scenario construction process | Approach to uncertainty | Transparency and validation of outputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADEQUATE
|
PARTIALLY
ADEQUATE
|
PARTIALLY |
PARTIALLY |
PARTIALLY |
|
Data and data sources transparently stated and, where possible, based on multiple corroborating sources |
Model structure is transparent |
Rationale for alternative scenario ‘storylines’ appropriate to study purpose, and adequately discussed and explained |
Uncertainties in the input assumptions and results analysed and presented transparently |
Outputs presented in a manner that facilitates consideration of how they are shaped by input assumptions, model mechanics, and scenarios |
|
Data up-to-date, with the bounds of data availability constraints |
Inadequate discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the model structure, with respect to its fitness for purpose |
Process through which
these storylines were
developed is not
explained |
Uncertainties associated with the model’s causal mechanisms (through which inputs are translated into key outputs) are not analysed and presented transparently |
Implications of uncertainties in inputs and model structure are not considered in reporting of results and consequent policy implications |
|
Inputs justified through clear
reasoning, particularly when based on projections |
Application of model consistent with its design and structure; modelling approach fit for purpose |
Scenarios account for alternative socio-economic
pathways, in addition to technology development
and adoption pathways |
Model results analyse/represent how uncertainty may change with time |
Results validated with efforts at validation clearly presented |
Key Findings
Scenario: STEPS, IVC, DRS, SDS
MACRO-STRUCTURAL VARIABLES (2040)
Annual GDP Growth (%)
DRS
5%
STEPS
5.4%
SDS
5.4%
IVC
6%
Job Growth Outcome
STEPS
1 M
by 2030
IVC
1.15 M
by 2030
SDS
1.6 M
by 2030
DRS
Data not listed
EMISSIONS
Peaking Year
SDS
Mid-2020s
STEPS
Data not listed
IVC
Data not listed
DRS
Data not listed
Emissions in Peaking Year (GtCO₂e)
STEPS
Data not listed
IVC
Data not listed
DRS
Data not listed
SDS
Data not listed
Net Zero Year
STEPS
Beyond modelling horizon
IVC
Beyond modelling horizon
DRS
Data not listed
SDS
Scenario consistent with net-zero in mid-2060s
Energy Emissions in Net Zero Year (GtCO₂e)
STEPS
Beyond modelling horizon
IVC
Beyond modelling horizon
DRS
Data not listed
SDS
Data not listed
ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY (2040)
RE Share in Electricity Generation (%)
STEPS
56%
IVC
57%
SDS
79%
DRS
Data not listed
RE Share in Primary Energy (%)
STEPS
Data not listed
IVC
Data not listed
DRC
Data not listed
SDS
Data not listed
COSTS AND INVESTMENTS (2040)
Energy Investment Required
STEPS
$220 billion
(2019 USD)
IVC
$241
billion
(2019 USD)
SDS
$327 billion
(2019 USD)
DRS
Data not listed
Interpretation of Model Results
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY
Scenarios assume a services-led growth model, do not appear to vary structurally and do not appear to diverge from current trends to explore alternative development pathways.
ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAY
Energy demand trends come from varying assumptions of growth and efficiency but assume the same rates of urbanisation and structural growth drivers. There is limited clarity on scenarios aside from STEPS, though supply-side measures and requirements
provide some picture of the energy transition pathways implicit in the study
EMISSIONS
Emissions estimates are likely to be comparably more robust, though this may be limited by narrow assumptions on growth
and urbanization and risks of unrealised technology cost assumptions. Three scenarios project emissions while one is
a backcasting exercise.
INVESTMENTS
Model outputs include cumulative additional energy investment needs and total energy investments in 2030 and 2040, though notadditional details. Although reduced import bills are incorporated, lower clarity on uncertainties and exchange rate fluctuations mayaffect the robustness of estimates at a local level.
EQUITY AND RESOURCE IMPACTS
The study notes the role of MSMEs, as well as a just transition, though it is not able to disaggregate results to look at impacts on
specific groups or resources.
ENERGY SECURITY
The study accounts for fossil fuel import dependence and price variance but doesn’t consider potential import dependence for -as
examples -solar PV components or rare earth minerals.