Unpacking 'Decarbonising India: Charting a pathway for sustainable growth'
Unpacking 'Decarbonising India: Charting a pathway for sustainable growth'
Key Highlights
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Stated purpose of the study |
Key Merits | Scope for improvement |
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The stated purpose of the report is to define two possible roadmaps to the decarbonisation of the Indian economy in the context of continued economic growth, and identify emission reduction initiatives and cross-cutting approaches to decarbonise six sectors (power, automotive, aviation, steel, cement and agriculture) that contribute to 70% of overall emissions |
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Model Assessment
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Model Assessment
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| Transparency and credibility of inputs | Appropriateness of model choice to research objective | Assessment of scenario construction process | Approach to uncertainty | Transparency and validation of outputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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ADEQUATE |
PARTIALLY
ADEQUATE |
INADEQUATE |
INADEQUATE |
PARTIALLY
ADEQUATE |
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Data and data sources transparently stated and, where possible, abased on multiple corroborating sources |
The structure of the model is clear. However, some tools and inputs remain proprietary which makes replication challenging. |
The scenarios are explained in depth. Their rationale and complementarity is explicitly tied to India’s decarbonisation objectives, which the study aims to explore. |
Uncertainties related to technology, policy implementation and microeconomic factors are discussed qualitatively and transparently. |
Outputs presented in a manner that facilitates consideration of how they are shaped by input assumptions, model mechanics, and scenarios |
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Data up-to-date, with the bounds of data availability constraints |
The application of the model consistent with its design and structure. Granular sectoral demand projections and assumptions around technological changes are laid out in considerable detail. |
The report lacks transparency on the development process for the scenarios themselves. The process does not mention an iterative approach or active involvement of policymakers in scenario design. |
Uncertainties associated with the model’s causal mechanisms (through which inputs are translated into key outputs) are not explicitly explained. How inputs influence outputs is largely implied rather than explicitly detailed. |
Implications of uncertainties in inputs and model structure have been qualitatively discussed. |
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Inputs justified through clear reasoning, particularly when based on projections. However, inputs not adequately reflect growing uncertainties over time. |
The model is not equipped to evaluate the social impact of decarbonisation, or the effect of specific policies and policy challenges. |
The report does not account for varying socio-economic pathways. |
The report notes uncertainties in technology adoption and policy implementation, but does not analyse how these may evolve over time. |
The report does not explicitly present detailed efforts at validation. Though the report mentions the contributions from a multidisciplinary team of sector experts, its unclear how and if experts were engaged in the scenario development process or the validation process. |
Key Findings
Scenario: Line of Sight, Accelerated
Scenario
Line of Sight
Accelerated
MACRO-STRUCTURAL VARIABLES (2070)
Annual GDP Growth (%)
4.23%2
4.23%3
GDP
$22 trillion economy in real 2010-dollar terms4
$22 trillion economy in real 2010-dollar terms5
Population
1.7 billion
1.7 billion
Urbanisation (%)
Data not listed6
Data not listed7
Job Growth Outcome
Data not listed
24 million new jobs could be created while six million of the existing jobs could be lost by 2050
EMISSIONS
Peaking Year
“Emissions peak in the early 2030s”
“Emissions peak in mid-2020s”
Emissions in Peaking Year (GtCO2e)
3.8 GtC02e
3.4 GtC02e
Net Zero Year
Data not listed
Data not listed
Energy Emissions in Net Zero Year (GtCO2e)
Power sector emissions are 1.27 GtCO2e in 2030
Power sector emissions are 1.30 GtCO2e in 2025
ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY (2050)
Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe)
1570 Mtoe8
1180 Mtoe9
Installed Generation Capacity (GW)
2675 GW
4019 GW
Electricity Demand (TWh)
6846 TWh10
8920 TWh11
RE Share in Electricity Generation (%)
79%
94%
RE Share in Primary Energy (%)
46% by 2050, and 85% by 207012
86% by 2050, and 92% by 207013
COSTS AND INVESTMENTS
Energy Investment Required
$2.5 trillion investment in renewable energy and storage required by 2050
$3.8 trillion investment in renewable energy and storage required by 2050
2. Gross domestic product (GDP) at constant market prices, rebased to 2010 constant prices and translated into US$ using the LCU:$ exchange rate in 2010 – from The Economist Intelligence Unit for 2020–50. Assumed 3% annual real GDP growth from 2050–70 (p. 43, 45, iii): 2020-2030: 5.8% ; 2030-2040: 5.1%; 2040-2050: 4.7%; 2050-2060: 3%; 2060-2070: 3%
3. Gross domestic product (GDP) at constant market prices, rebased to 2010 constant prices and translated into US$ using the LCU:$ exchange rate in 2010 – from The Economist Intelligence Unit for 2020–50. Assumed 3% annual real GDP growth from 2050–70 (p. 43, 45, iii): 2020-2030: 5.8% ; 2030-2040: 5.1%; 2040-2050: 4.7%; 2050-2060: 3%; 2060-2070: 3%
4. Based on Economist Intelligence Unit projection of $12.5 trillion by 2050 (Real GDP – USD at 2010 prices) and extrapolated to 2070 with 3 percent CAGR assumption. Real GDP growth rate assumption based on Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) projection for 2020–30 is 5.8 percent, 2030–40 is 5.1 percent and 2040–50 is 4.7 percent. 2050–70 Real GDP growth rate has been assumed to be about 3 percent annually.
5. Based on Economist Intelligence Unit projection of $12.5 trillion by 2050 (Real GDP – USD at 2010 prices) and extrapolated to 2070 with 3 percent CAGR assumption. Real GDP growth rate assumption based on Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) projection for 2020–30 is 5.8 percent, 2030–40 is 5.1 percent and 2040–50 is 4.7 percent. 2050–70 Real GDP growth rate has been assumed to be about 3 percent annually.
6. Note: India does not reach net-zero, “due to the residual emissions from agriculture and select industrial sectors (remaining emissions in 2070 of 1.8 and 0.4 GtCO2e in the LoS and Accelerated scenarios, respectively)” .However, coal emissions will reach net zero by 2070.
7. Note: India does not reach net-zero, “due to the residual emissions from agriculture and select industrial sectors (remaining emissions in 2070 of 1.8 and 0.4 GtCO2e in the LoS and Accelerated scenarios, respectively)” .However, coal emissions will reach net zero by 2050.
8. This is the primary energy supply.
9. This is the primary energy supply.
10. Power sector generation.
11. Power sector generation.
12. Since it is green hydrogen, the RE share here also includes green hydrogen.
13. Since it is green hydrogen, the RE share here also includes green hydrogen.
Interpretation of Model Results
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY
The study assumes steady GDP growth, urbanization, and rising energy demand but does not explore alternative economic scenarios. It projects major shifts in sectoral energy use, driven by industry and transport growth. While job creation and losses are estimated, job quality is not analyzed. The study emphasizes decarbonization but lacks alternative macroeconomic trend assessments.
ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAY
The study examines India’s energy transition, focusing on sectoral energy needs, green technologies, and enablers like infrastructure, storage, and local manufacturing. It highlights energy demand drivers but overlooks structural growth and labor implications. While emphasizing technology costs and domestic manufacturing, it does not fully address infrastructure investment challenges or the policy frictions of moving away from fossil fuels.
EMISSIONS
The report back-calculates emissions from India’s net-zero target, assessing policy feasibility but with limited exploration of uncertainties. It covers major emission sources and key mitigation strategies like renewables, green hydrogen, and CCUS, though reliant on optimistic cost and deployment assumptions. While carbon sinks and land-use changes expand mitigation potential, achieving targets depends on strong policies and investments.
INVESTMENTS
The study emphasizes the need for substantial upfront investment in renewables, green hydrogen, and storage, aligning costs with GDP growth assumptions. It estimates investment needs for energy capacity and emissions targets while highlighting long-term economic savings from reduced energy imports. However, it lacks detailed financial structuring and sector-specific investment breakdowns.
EQUITY AND RESOURCE IMPACTS
The study highlights the transformation of 30 million jobs by 2050 but lacks detailed analysis of regional or socioeconomic impacts, including informal employment. It examines land and water use for renewables and hydrogen, emphasizing efficiency but not ecosystem trade-offs. It also discusses Natural Climate Solutions (NCS), noting their role in carbon storage and co-benefits like biodiversity protection and climate resilience.
ENERGY SECURITY
The study highlights India’s potential to reduce energy imports through renewables and green hydrogen but notes its reliance on imported renewable technologies. It recommends local manufacturing for energy security and warns of transition risks if infrastructure and demand signals are misaligned.
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