Unpacking ‘India: Transforming to a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System’
Unpacking ‘India: Transforming to a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System’
Key Highlights
| Stated purpose of the study | Key merits | Scope for improvement |
|---|---|---|
|
To assess whether adequate solutions theoretically exist to fully decarbonise the energy sector |
Offers a comprehensive ensemble of
mitigation technologies and approaches across the energy sector |
Limited transparency in model data and structure constrains the credibility of ensuing policy recommendations Provides little insight on the extent to which uncertainties may influence recommendations. These limitations are crucial particularly with respect to technological breakthroughs, and potential alternative socio-economic —GDP and urbanisation —pathways Does not quantify financial, equity, or energy security implications of the energy transition, or the trade-offs between developmental and mitigation choices |
Model Assessment
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Model Assessment
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| Transparency and credibility of inputs | Appropriateness of model choice to research objective | Assessment of scenario construction process | Approach to uncertainty | Transparency and validation of outputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
INADEQUATE
|
INADEQUATE |
PARTIALLY |
INADEQUATE |
INADEQUATE |
|
Data and data sources are not transparently stated and based on multiple corroborating
sources |
Model structure is not transparent
|
Rationale for alternative scenario ‘storylines’ appropriate to study
purpose, and adequately discussed and explained |
Uncertainties in the input assumptions and results are not analysed and presented transparently
|
Outputs not presented in a manner that facilitates consideration of how they are shaped by input assumptions,
model mechanics, and
scenarios |
|
Data up-to-date, with the bounds of data availability constraints |
Inadequate discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the model structure, with
respect to its fitness
for purpose |
Process through which these storylines were developed is not explained |
Uncertainties associated with the model’s causal mechanisms (through which inputs are translated into key outputs) are not analysed and presented transparently |
Implications of uncertainties in inputs and model structure not considered in reporting of results and consequent
policy implications |
|
Inputs insufficiently justified through clear reasoning, particularly when based on projections |
Inputs insufficiently justified through clear reasoning, particularly when based on projections |
Scenarios account for the limitations and implications of uncertainties, and discuss them qualitatively |
Model results do not analyse/represent how uncertainty may change with time |
Results not validated, or efforts at validation are not clearly presented
|
Key Findings
Scenario: Net-zero emissions (NZE)
MACRO-STRUCTURAL VARIABLES (2050)
Annual GDP Growth (%)
Unclear, approximately 5%
Job Growth Outcome
Data not listed, but job increases expected in renewables
EMISSIONS
Peaking Year
2025 (Energy sector)
Emissions in Peaking Year (GtCO₂e)
3 (GtCO₂e)
Net-Zero Year
2050 (Energy sector)
Energy Emissions in Net-Zero Year (GtCO₂e)
Residual emissions of 1.3 GtCO₂e
ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY (2050)
RE Share in Electricity Generation (%)
90%
RE Share in Primary Energy (%)
Data not listed
COSTS AND INVESTMENT
Energy Investment Required
Data not listed
Interpretation of Model Results
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY
The study assumes single estimates for select development indicators such as sector shares of GDP or consumption patterns, and thus doesn’t consider alternative development pathways. Further, these singular estimates aren’t detailed, thereby making it difficult to assess their feasibility or implications for India’s development.
ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAY
Energy demand is assumed to be driven by growth and urbanisation, but the study doesn’t discuss its likelihood or variability, its distribution across sectors, and the role of efficiency gains. Shares of generation capacity and utilisation factors aren’t clear, and uncertainties in technological breakthroughs aren’t discussed. It is thus difficult to fully understand the energy transition pathway implicit in the study
EMISSIONS
The scenario is a back-calculation exercise to assess policy needs, and thus isn’t designed to discuss likelihoods of emissions estimated. Non-energy emissions aren’t included, and the study doesn’t discuss sources of emissions and emissions reductions, or the
impacts of alternative patterns of energy demand and supply.
INVESTMENTS
The study does not quantify domestic investment needs, either cumulative or annual, and does not explicate technological cost
assumptions.
EQUITY AND RESOURCE IMPACTS
The study notes India’s development challenges, but does not detail co-benefits or resource impacts, discuss distributive impacts, or capture discussions on resilience and the informal economy.
ENERGY SECURITY
The study acknowledges greater resultant self-sufficiency and macroeconomic stability, but does not quantify reductions in energy
imports, potential import dependence for natural gas and solar PV components, or impacts of potential supply shocks.
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